John Mearsheimer, the esteemed Political Science Professor at the University of Chicago, is one of the leading scholars in the world who shaped the school of "offensive realism." It's complicated, nonpartisan, and blunt. Essentially, he believes that states aim for regional dominance over one another for hegemony. Offensive realism has significantly influenced both Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
As we here at LIV celebrated Independence Day, we were looking at how the war in Ukraine impacts our mission at LIV, to protect natural resources and to foster competitive elections. We got the idea for this article from reading former Congressman, Ron Paul's, recent article, "We need a Peace President," referencing JFK and the Cuban missile crisis, connecting war and environmental destruction today with this statement:
"The Biden Administration announced last week that it would send depleted uranium ammunition to Ukraine, which poisons the earth for millennia to come."
We are concerned that we are not hearing well-informed opposition voices to US involvement in Ukraine. We urge you to read Mearsheimer's full paper linked below and work with LIV to find cross-partisan solutions.
Mearsheimer's Dark Conclusions and Silver Lining
Access Professor Mearsheimer's paper, Darkness Ahead: Where The Ukraine War is Headed here on Substack. We're cheating on the professor by giving you his conclusions below. Read the full article, folks, or LIV will give you an F-! :)
"While there is no question Russia invaded Ukraine, the ultimate cause of the war was the West’s decision – and here we are talking mainly about the United States – to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. The key element in that strategy was bringing Ukraine into NATO, a move that not only Putin, but the entire Russian foreign policy establishment, saw as an existential threat that had to be eliminated.
It is often forgotten that numerous American and European policymakers and strategists opposed NATO expansion from the start because they understood that the Russians would see it as a threat and that the policy would eventually lead to disaster. The list of opponents includes George Kennan, both President Clinton’s Secretary of Defense, William Perry, and his Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General John Shalikashvili, Paul Nitze, Robert Gates, Robert McNamara, Richard Pipes, and Jack Matlock, just to name a few.
I believe Russia will win the war, which means it will end up conquering and annexing substantial Ukrainian territory, leaving Ukraine as a dysfunctional rump state. If I am correct, this will be a grievous defeat for Ukraine and the West."
Mearsheimer's Silver Lining:
"There is a silver lining in this outcome, however: a Russian victory markedly reduces the threat of nuclear war, as nuclear escalation is most likely to occur if Ukrainian forces are winning victories on the battlefield and threatening to take back all or most of the territories Kyiv has lost to Moscow. Russian leaders would surely think seriously about using nuclear weapons to rescue the situation. Of course, if I am wrong about where the war is headed and the Ukrainian military gains the upper hand and begins pushing Russian forces eastward, the likelihood of nuclear use would increase significantly, which is not to say it would be a certainty."
Neo-Con War Pushers Left the GOP for the Democratic Party, says Greenwald
Independent journalist attorney, Glenn Greenwald, in his June 19th show, The Singular Evil of Bill Kristol launched his own verbal assault on the "neo-cons" who lied, getting the US into Iraq. Greenwald explains how Bill Kristol and other neo-cons left the Republican Party and ensconced themselves in the Democratic Party.
Climate Hawks and Peace Doves Fusion
In today's derelict two-party system, the "climate hawks and peace doves" are on the endangered species list if not extinct. Though there are plenty of Democrats today who consider themselves climate hawks, they have failed to pressure President Biden to stay out or get out of the quagmire -- Mearsheimer calls a "frozen conflict" -- in Ukraine. Though there are some populist Republicans who have questioned funding the Ukraine war, the GOP is as much pro-war as the Democrats. And, of course, Republicans who support decisive, or any action on the climate crisis are extinct.
The anti-war wing of the Democratic Party began to wither after Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), left Congress in 2013, having been gerrymandered out of his district. The anti-war, anti-interventionist Republican Ron Paul of Texas retired from Congress at the same time.
Today, Kucinich and Paul are taking action as "fusionists" working together across party and ideology on war and the growing climate crises overwhelming life on our little green and blue planet. We'll write more about this soon.
Happy After Independence Day to you fusionists!
More reading for you deep divers:
* We refer you again to the Quincy Institute's, "More Money, Less Security: Pentagon Spending and Strategy in the Biden Administration."
* It might surprise you that the US military has been concerned about climate change since long before the non-profit Center for Climate & Security Council on Strategic Risks was founded in 2010.
* This Wikipedia page on Climate Change Policy in the US is helpful.
• Lee Drutman, political scientist and author of the book, "Breaking the Two-Party Doom Loop," persuasively argued in his 2021 Time Magazine article, about the dangers of a small faction within the GOP taking over one of the two major parties in our anti-competitive two-party system.
* We believe the last time Mearsheimer was on PBS was in 2018 in this fascinating point-counter-point with war hawk, Victoria Nuland. Check out what the professor says about the bat Trump took to NATO. Correct us if we're wrong, but this might have been around the time PBS stopped doing point-counter-point coverage.